基于需求预测的供应链期权式契约协调  

Supply Chain Coordination with Option Contract under Demand Updating

作　　者：佟斌[1] 郭琼[1] 潘新[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程》2006年第11期13-18,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(70031020);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70571010);中期协联合研究计划资助项目(GT200410ZZ200505)

摘　　要：通过期权机制,分别建立了基于需求预测的两阶段生产和订购模式下的集中决策型和合作型供应链中各决策主体的决策模型,发现期权机制要优于传统的报童模型(N ew svendor)。在合作型供应链中,供应商和零售商根据预测结果合理地安排其两阶段的生产和订购量,通过选择不同的期权价格政策,可以将部分市场风险转移给供应商,供应商也因此通过期权而获得相应的风险补偿,从而实现供应链协调。最后根据电子半导体类产品的特征,对论文中的理论模型进行了详细的模拟分析,结果验证了期权契约在需求预测环境下的供应链协调过程中的有效性。Supply chain coordination with option contract under demand updating is studied in this paper. The supplier＇s and the retailer＇s decision models in the centralized and decentralized supply chains with two-stage manufacturing and ordering mode are built and the model analysis indicates that the supply chain agents＇ profits are better than those in the newsvendor models. In the decentralized supply chain, the ordering and production decision are made according to different updated information and production costing. The option contract shifts a part of the buyer＇s risk from demand uncertainty to the supplier by the appropriate options pricing policy and products salvage way, and the supplier, in turn, is compensated by the additional revenue obtained from the options. As a result, the supply chain is coordinated.

关 键 词：需求预测 期权契约 供应链协调 价格政策 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]