最优组合预测方法在内河港口吞吐量预测中的应用  

Application of the optimized combination model in throughput forecasting of inland river port

作　　者：黄勇[1] 高捷[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海200030

出　　处：《水道港口》2006年第6期401-404,共4页Journal of Waterway and Harbor

摘　　要：港口吞吐量的预测是港口规划过程中最为基础也最为关键的一步,只有对港口吞吐量做出准确、稳定的预测,才能做出科学合理的港口发展规划。由于内河港吞吐量历史数据有限,文中采用GM(1,1)和Verhulst模型的最优组合模型对港口吞吐量进行预测。该组合模型充分利用GM(1,1)模型“少数据,短期预测准确”的优点,又针对GM(1,1)预测量的无限增大趋势,引入了Verhulst模型进行组合修正,进而提高预测值的准确、稳健性。The forecasting of a port＇ s throughput is the most basic and important step of the process of its future development programming. And a sound port development layout comes only with accurate, steady- going forecasting of the port＇ s throughput. Because of few records of inland port＇ s annual throughput history data,an optimized combination model of Grey Forecasting Model and Verhulst Model is adopted in this paper. This optimized combination model takes full advantage of the fact that Grey Forecasting Model works well in solving short - term forecasting problems with few history data records, meanwhile that Grey Forecasting Model is revised by Verhulst Model so as to get a more accurate and steady - going forecasting data.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 VERHULST模型 组合预测模型 内河港口吞吐量预测 

分 类 号：U691.71[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]