洞庭湖湿地稻区化肥环境影响评估  

The Evaluation of Environmental Impact of Fertilizer in Wetland Rice Region of the Dongting Lake Area

作　　者：向平安[1] 周燕 黄璜[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学农学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]长沙卷烟厂科研中心,湖南长沙410014

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2007年第1期81-84,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家863项目(编号:863-306-ZD05-3-E);国家星火计划项目(编号:2004EA770030)资助

摘　　要：研究采用时间序列分析法,预测洞庭湖区2010年2、020年人口将分别达到1 396.38×104人、1 492.31×104人,稻谷总需求量分别为5 002.17×103t,5 284.79×103t,化肥投入实物量将分别为1 466.91×103t,1 549.79×103t。在总结国内外化肥投入影响环境研究基础上建立了化肥环境影响评估模型,预计2010,2020年洞庭湖区区水稻生产因化肥带来环境成本将分别达到2.2×108元、2.32×108元,占稻谷销售效益的3.4%和3.13%,稻田生态系统和社会将难以承受,建议政府在化肥过量施用的地区征收化肥环境税。Using a time series analysis metbed, tbe author forecasts tbe population of tbe Dongdng Lake area in 2010 will be 1 396. 38 × 10^4 with the paddy demand 5 002.17 ×10^3 t , and a fertilizer demand at 1 466.91× 10^3 t. In 2020 the population projection Hill be 1 492.31 × 10^4, the paddy demand 5 284.79 ×10^3 t , while the fertilizer demand quantity Hill be 1 549.79 × 10^3 t . The author set up an evaluation model of environmental costs of fertilizer on the basis of summarizing domestic and international fertilizers used and the relative environment impacts and forecasts the environmental costs of fertilizer in rice production in the Dongting Lake area. The environmental cost of fertilizer will be 2.2 ×10^8s yuan and 2.32 ×10^8 yuan in 2010 and 2020, respectively, which is equal to 3.4% and 3.13% of the paddy sale. The enviromnental costs are so high that the paddy field ecological system and society will be significant burdened. For the sake of sustainable development in rice production, the author advised the goverranent to assess the environmental tax on fertilizer in such areas whereby chemical fertilizers are excessively used.

关 键 词：湿地 洞庭湖区 稻谷需求 化肥 环境成本 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]