潮涌现象与发展中国家宏观经济理论的重新构建  

Wave Phenomenon and the Reconstruction of Macroeconomic Theories for Developing Countries

作　　者：林毅夫[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国经济研究中心

出　　处：《经济研究》2007年第1期126-131,共6页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：现有宏观经济学理论以产业升级时国民经济中每个企业对于下一个有前景的产业存在何处没有共识为暗含前提,但是,由于后发优势的存在,发展中国家的企业很容易对下一个有前景的产业产生共识,投资上出现“潮涌现象”,并伴随此现象出现产能过剩和相关的一系列问题。所以,有必要放松现有的暗含前提,重新构建一套新的宏观经济理论体系,探讨投资的“潮涌现象”对发展中国家的物价、就业、经济增长和周期波动的影响,作为政府制定财政、货币、金融、外贸、产业发展等宏观经济管理政策的参考。It is an implicit assumption in the existing that there is no consensus among firms about which the next promising industry will be in the process of economic growth. However, because of the advantages of backwardness, firms in a developing country are easy to form a consensus about the next promising industry. The consensus often leads to a wave phenomenon in the firms＇ investments and results in over capacity in the new industry and a series of related economic problems. It is imperative to relax the above implicit assumption and reconstruct a new macroeconomics to explore the implications of the investments＇ wave phenomenon on prices, employment, economic growth and business cycles in a developing country so as to provide the government with references for making fiscal, monetary, financial, trade, industrial development and other macroeconomic management policies.

关 键 词：宏观经济学 宏观政策 投资行为 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]