企业集团内政策不确定性对子公司新技术投资决策的影响  

The Effects of Enterprise Group's Policy Uncertainty on New Technology Investment Decisions of Subsidiary Company

作　　者：袁蔡群[1] 仝允桓[1] 王艳华[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学技术创新研究中心,北京100084 [2]北京航星机器制造公司,北京100013

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2007年第1期60-67,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70233001);高等院校博士学科专项基金(0510309)

摘　　要：研究子公司在当前总公司不同政策情况下,未来政策不确定性对企业投资临界值的影响,将企业集团内子公司新技术产品未来的需求描述为混合布朗运动/泊松跳跃过程,并用泊松跳跃过程描述政策的转换过程.通过建立模型以及模型模拟数值解,得出了特定情况下子公司投资的临界值,并考察了因总公司的不支持政策对子公司投资造成的阻碍程度对企业决策临界值的影响,进一步分析了决策临界值对政策的不确定性概率的依赖程度以及在存在突变因素的情况下企业的决策.Under the assumptions that the demand of subsidiary company＇ s new technology commodities follows a mixed Brownian motion/Poisson jump process and the policies＇ change follows a Poisson jump process, the impact of the uncertainty of parent company＇s future policies on subsidiary company＇s investment decisions is investigated. By certain numerical illustration based on a model, our research gives the optimal entry thresholds under different present policies, and analyzes the relationship between these thresholds and the added costs＇ degree which comes from the unsupported of parent company. Further, the dependence of these thresholds on the probability of uncertainty and the effects of factors which Lead to demand＇s Jump Process on Firms＇ Decisions are studied.

关 键 词：企业集团 新技术投资 政策不确定性 进入决策 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] F830.59[经济管理—国民经济]