基于历史资料的中国北方草原火灾风险评价  

Historical data-based risk assessment of fire in grassland of northen China

作　　者：刘兴朋[1] 张继权[1] 范久波[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院/自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2007年第1期61-65,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA528B-3-1)

摘　　要：根据我国北方草原区各省、自治区1991-2005年的草原火灾资料,利用信息扩散理论和风险矩阵对我国北方草原区的草原火灾风险进行了计算,给出了我国北方各草原区的草原火灾年发生次数和草原火灾年受灾率在各个风险水平下的风险值,定量地评价了我国北方草原区的草原火灾风险。并给出几个重要风险水平下草原火灾风险的空间分布趋势和综合指标下的我国草原火灾风险空间分布趋势。Using the data of grassland risk in every province and autonomous fire disasters in1991 -2005, authors calculated the value of grassland fire region by employing information diffusion theory and risk matrix to deal with the data of grassland fire disasters in grassland regions of northern China. In this paper, the risk values of annual grassland fire disaster frequency and affected area rate under various risk levels were presented. The grassland fire disaster risk levels of various regions in northem China were quantitatively .indicated and the spatial distribution tendency of grassland fire disaster riak was shown.

关 键 词：信息扩散 风险矩阵 草原火灾 风险评价 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]