城市生态环境演变趋势的集对分析预测研究——以武汉市为例  

Study on trend of urban ecology and environment based on Set Pair Analysis model:A case study of Wuhan

作　　者：李湘梅[1] 周敬宣[1] 陈雷[1] 罗露琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《生态环境》2007年第1期83-87,共5页Ecology and Environmnet

摘　　要：自然生态环境是城市社会经济健康发展的重要物质基础,生态足迹作为生态环境承载状态测度的指标,受到社会、经济、人口等多种因素的影响,表现出时空动态性和不确定性等特征,集对分析(SPA)为不确定性问题的建模提出一条新的思路。在对1988—2004年武汉市生态足迹及其社会经济影响因子时间序列分析的基础上,通过构建的集对分析动态模型,对武汉市2005—2020年总生态足迹发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明,2005—2020年总生态足迹将由1810.925万hm2增长到2873.857万hm2,呈现出低于GDP和生态效率增长速率的趋势,但生态环境将进一步恶化,对此就武汉市生态系统的发展提出了对策与建议。最后,指出SPA动态模型为城市生态系统预测研究提供了一种可行的解决方案。Ecological environment is critical to socio-economy by underpinning human welfare. According to the past studies, the traditional models were built to assess the dynamic trends of ecological footprint（EF）, by transforming the indeterminacy problems into determinacy ones. Apparently, the indeterminacy informations in the studied object was neglected. The Set Pair Analysis （SPA） has been proved to be an effective forecasting approach in an increasing number of application in the indeterminacy problems. However, too few applications have been reported in ecological modelling. In this paper, by a case study of time serial analyzing total EFs and related socio-economic factors of Wuhan, a dynamic model of SPA was built to forecast total EFs of that district during 2005 --2020. In order to build the SPA model, the authors put both total EFs and socio-economic factors together as a whole to deal with because ecological environment is closely connected with and interacts with socio-economy. According to prediction results, up to 2020, the district would have been bearing an accumulative total EFs of 28.74：〈 106 hm2, which is near 2 times than that of 2003. Although the increase rate of GDP would be restricted in a lower level during the general planning 2005--2020, the urban ecological environmental load could not respond to the socio-economic circumstances promptly. Besides, in order to have a zero growth in total EFs from 2005 to 2020, while GDPs grows by the planning aims, the coo-efficiency should reach RMB 248035 ynan/hm^2 which is nearly out of question apparently. To avoid deterioration of ecological environment, the authors put forward a series of countermeasures to uphold the urban ecosystem. On the base of the case study, the authors also pointed out the validity of SPA in ecosystem prediction.

关 键 词：城市生态环境 生态足迹 集对分析 动态模型 武汉 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]