可公度信息系在强震预报中的应用  

Application of Commensurability Information System in the Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：李均之[1] 苏成[1] 夏雅琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学地震研究所,北京100022

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2007年第1期108-112,共5页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

摘　　要：可公度信息系作为信息预测方法中的一种,主要用来研究物理体系中的特性,其难点在于可公度性数据的提取．采用可公度性作模进行数据划分,依据不同的频数值来提取数据．应用可公度信息性和信息有序性2种方法研究中国大陆8级以上地震和美国加利福尼亚州7级以上地震,得到相同预测值．研究结果表明,中国大陆8级以上地震序列和美国加利福尼亚州7级以上地震序列是有规律的．As a method of the information forecasting, commensurability information system was mainly applied to studying system characteristics. The difficulty of commensurability information system is the pick-up of commensurable data. This paper adopted the commensurability as module for data partition, and extracted data by the different frequency. According to the commensurability and time order, the M≥8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and M≥7 earthquakes in California. The two methods reached the same goal by different routes. The results show that the series of M≥8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and M≥7 earthquakes in California are in a sense rather than fully stochastic.

关 键 词：可公度信息系 有序性 预测 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]