江苏省全社会固定资产投资预测  

Investment Forecast of Fixed Assets in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：徐志勇[1] 秦伟良[1] 李奇松[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数理学院统计系,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2007年第5期1551-1553,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：采用Holter-Winter非季节指数平滑模型、GM(1,1)模型和分段线性回归模型,对江苏省1978～2005年的全社会固定资产投资总额进行研究。结果表明,与其他两模型相比,分段线性回归模型具有较好的拟合效果,并预测了“十一五”期间的固定资产投资总额。Investment in fixed assets of the whole society in Jiangsu province from 1978 to 2005 were studied by adopting Hoher-Winter no seasonal exponential smoothing model, GM （1,1） model and linear regression model in section. The conclusion indicated that linear regression model in section had a better fitting effect than the other two models. And the whole investment of fixed assets in Jiangsu province during the eleventh five year was forecasted.

关 键 词：固定资产投资 Holter-Winter非季节指数平滑模型 GM(1 1)模型 分段线性回归模型 

分 类 号：F224.7[经济管理—国民经济]