道路交通安全水平预测的统计模型  

A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Road Traffic Safety Level

作　　者：熊辉[1] 沙云飞[2] 史其信[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学交通工程系,北京100081 [2]清华大学土木工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2007年第1期28-33,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：欧盟合作项目(20812090_No.3/2005_BUT)

摘　　要：为了评价和预测不同国家的道路交通安全水平,建立通用的统计模型,作者首先分析道路交通事故死亡率与人口规模、机动车保有量、道路里程以及人均GNP之间的相关关系,根据相关性选择影响道路交通事故的因素,并建立万车死亡率与人均GNP之间的函数关系。模型计算结果与校核数据对比分析表明,所提出的模型能够较好地评价和预测一个国家或地区的道路交通安全水平。模型对交通管理者提高交通安全性的科学决策具有重要指导意义。To evaluate and predict the level of road traffic safety for various countries all over the world, a general and practical model is formulated. The paper identified the relationship between traffic mortality and several other variables, such as population, vehicle, road provision, and GNP per capita, and concluded that road traffic mortality is strongly related to GNPper capita based on correlation. In the model road traffic mortality per 10 thousand motor vehicles and GNP per capita are predictors and independent variables respectively. Comparison between the model results and statistical data shows that the model is suitable to predict the level of road traffic safety for various countries. The model is of great importance to improve traffic safety level for traffic authority＇ s sound decision making.

关 键 词：道路交通安全 统计模型 预测 人均GNP 万车死亡率 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]