我国外汇储备规模、需求及其动态调整  

The Scale,Demand and Dynamic Adjustment for China's Foreign Reserves

作　　者：饶华春[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院金融系,广东广州510521

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2007年第3期141-143,共3页East China Economic Management

摘　　要：文章分析了能较好解释我国外汇储备规模变动的主要影响变量;在此基础上利用动态调整模型确定我国的外汇储备需求方程,并依此来判断我国所持有的外汇储备是否充足,或是超量。结果表明:1996年以来,我国大部分年份的外汇储备供过于求,但外汇储备实际持有量与需求量之间的缺口有63%的部分在年度内得到了调整。In this paper, we firstly analyze major variables to explain the reason of variation of foreign reserves. By utilizing model of dynamic adjustment, we construct foreign reserve equation to judge whether foreign reserves is adequate or surplus. The conclusions are： foreign reserves has been an excess of supply over demand after 1996; more than 63 per cent of the discrepancy between actual and desired reserves is made up within one year.

关 键 词：外汇储备持有量 外汇需求 动态调整 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]