基于混沌的三江平原月降水时间序列分析  

Analysis of Monthly Precipitation Time Series in Sanjiang Plain Based on Chaos

作　　者：李国良[1] 付强[1] 冯艳[1] 李伟业[1] 刘仁涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2007年第6期76-81,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30400275);黑龙江省青年科学基金(QC04C28)

摘　　要：三江平原是我国最大的淡水沼泽区,近年来降水的减少是导致湿地减少的一个重要的自然因素.别拉洪河是三江平原上比较有代表性的沼泽性河流.以别拉洪水文站的降水序列为例,通过相空间重构,分别计算了序列的关联维、最大Lyapunov指数以及Kolmogorov熵等几个序列特征量.计算表明:三江平原月降水序列中是存在明显的混沌特征的,这为以后建立三江平原月降水的混沌预测模型提供了理论依据.It is the largest swamp area of freshwater in China. The precipitation reduction is an important natural factor in wetland shrink. Bielahong River is the more representative marsh river in sanjiang plain. The monthly precipitation time series which have been detecting at bilahong hydrology station of bielahong River. The several characteristic quantities, which are the correlative dimension, the Lyapunov index and the Kolmogorove entropy of monthly precipitation time series, have been calculated in reconstruction of state space. The calculation shows that there are obvious chaos characteristic in monthly precipitation time series in sanjiang plain. The result could offer theoretical basis for building prediction model of monthly precipitation in sanjiang plain in the future.

关 键 词：三江平原 月降水时间序列 相空间重构 特征量 混沌 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]