货币危机模型在中国当前的表现  

Current Manifestations of Currency Crisis Model in China

作　　者：郭清马[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京农村商业银行,北京100034

出　　处：《湖南财经高等专科学校学报》2007年第2期55-57,共3页Journal of Hunan Financial and Economic College

摘　　要：传统的货币危机模型由于前提假设过分简化而与现实生活相去甚远,这些前提也许只能勉强存在于西方发达国家,在发展中国家不可能存在。依据我国国情对传统货币危机模型进行修正,通过修改模型框架中的利率平价条件(引入制度摩擦系数),构建符合中国实际的货币危机模型,可以得出如下结论:在当前制度前提下,如果我国受到投机攻击,固定汇率持续的时间可能会因制度摩擦系数的存在而被有效延长,但是制度扭曲的代价却是积累更大的金融风险。Because of the rigid presuppositions, the traditional currency crisis model is far from real situation. These presuppositions are scarcely existed in the developed countries, and it is impossible to be existed in the undeveloped countries. To modify the traditional currency crisis model according to China＇s situation, and construct a currency crisis model tallying with the national conditions in China, can deduce some conclusions： if speculative attack occurs in our country, the continuance of fixed exchange rate will be efficiently prolonged under the condition of present system, but the cost of system distortion is the accumulation of greater financial risk.

关 键 词：利率平价 货币危机模型 汇率 修正 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学]