非线性FCA模型在流域水资源冲突风险评价中的应用  

Application of nonlinear FCA model to risk evaluation of conflicts of river basin water resources

作　　者：胡庆和[1] 施国庆[1] 黄涛珍[1] 刘卫林[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2007年第2期6-9,共4页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家"863"重大科技专项课题(2003AA601080-1);湖南省水利厅科技项目(2004536512)

摘　　要：介绍模糊矩阵合成算子的性质及其在评价中的实际意义。建立了流域水资源冲突风险评价的指标体系。在改进层次分析法的基础上,用非线性模糊综合评价模型对资水流域水资源冲突风险进行了评价。评价结果表明,所建模型对于涉及水量、水质、生态与体制等多因子的流域水资源冲突风险评价具有良好的适用性,可反映不同指标对评价结果的突出影响,弥补了线性加权模糊综合评价模型的不足,使评价结果更可靠。该模型可在不同流域不同时期和不同条件下的水资源冲突风险综合评价中推广应用。The property of fuzzy matrix composite operator and its practical meaning in assessment were introduced, and a risk evaluation index system for the conflicts of river basin water resources was established. Based on the improved analytic hierarchy process, the risk of water resources conflicts of Zishui river basin was evaluated by use of the nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive evalution model. The result shows that the given model is suitable for risk evaluation of the river basin water resources related to the factors of water quantity, water quality, ecology, management system, etc., and it can reflect the great effect of different indexes on the evaluation result, make up for the deficiency of the linear weighted fuzzy comprehensive assessment medal, and improve the reliability of the evaluation. Therefore, it can he widely applied to comprehensive risk evaluation of water resources of different river basins at different stages under different conditions.

关 键 词：流域水资源 水资源冲突风险 非线性模型 模糊综合评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]