基于支持向量机的水资源短缺风险评价模型及应用  

Model for assessing water shortage risk based on support vector machine

作　　者：黄明聪[1] 解建仓[1] 阮本清[2] 汪雅梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044

出　　处：《水利学报》2007年第3期255-259,共5页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(50279041);国家863计划项目(2005AA113150);陕西重点实验室资助项目(05JS378)

摘　　要：本文阐述了支持向量回归机的算法原理,将风险评价归纳为一个支持向量回归问题,建立了基于支持向量机的水资源短缺风险评价模型和方法。采用风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、事故周期和风险度等作为区域水资源短缺风险程度的评价指标,建立了综合评价体系。本方法应用于闽东南地区的水资源短缺风险评价,评价结果显示:到2010水平年,闽东南地区的水资源短缺风险较高,需要采取风险调控措施。Based on the principle of support vector proposed. In the model, the assessment of risk is machine a model for assessing water shortage risk is regarded as the regression of a support vector machine and the risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period of reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes for establishing the comprehensive assessment index system for water shortage risk of regional water resources. The application to analysis of the southeast area of Fujian Province, China, shows that the proposed model is feasible and the result indicates the water shortage risk level in this area will be high in 2010, so that measures for risk management must be adopted in the near future.

关 键 词：水资源 短缺风险 评价指标 支持向量机 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]