灰色自记忆模型在年径流预测中的应用  

Application of Grey Self-memory Model in Prediction of Annual Runoff

作　　者：解苗苗[1] 王文圣[1] 王红芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2007年第2期8-10,4,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579009);中国气象局成都高原气象实验室基金资助项目(LPM2005004)

摘　　要：为探索提高年径流预测精度的简单有效途径,以GM(1,1)微分方程为动力核建立了灰色自记忆模型,并应用于寸滩站年径流的拟合和预测中,取得了良好的效果。与组合模型相比,该模型结构简单并具有较高的拟合和预测精度,可应用于年径流序列的预测之中。To increase the efficiency of medium and annual runoff prediction, the grey self-memory model based on GM （1, 1） differential equation was established. The results show that the model has good effects on fitting and forecasting the annual runoff in Cuntan station by comparison with the combination model,and is feasible to forecast annual runoff.

关 键 词：年径流预测 灰色微分方程 自记忆模型 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]