技术创新风险的预警指标体系与模糊综合评价  

Forecasting management of enterprise' technology innovation risk

作　　者：彭灿[1] 李璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《科学学研究》2006年第A02期633-641,共9页Studies in Science of Science

摘　　要：通过分析,发现已有技术创新风险预警指标体系和量化分析方法存在的主要缺陷,并借鉴前人提出的三维技术创新风险分析模型,构建新的技术创新风险预警指标体系和基于该三维预警指标体系的风险分析层次递阶结构模型;采用“考虑实际绩效数据的模糊层次分析法”对技术创新风险进行综合评价和关键因素的识别。Technology innovation is full of high rlsks,so we should carry out purposeful and fruitful forecasting management aiming at it. This paper introduces the three-dimension analysis model, adjusts the forecasting index systems from the new aspect and builds AHP model based on the three-dimension forecasting index systems. It adopts ＂fussy-AHP considering real performance data＂, which is used to evaluate the technology innovation risk and identify key factors.

关 键 词：技术创新风险 预警管理 AHP模型 模糊AHP法 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理]