一类CRM模型的构建及其销售策略分析  

Kind of CRM modeling and its sales strategy analysis

作　　者：陈伯成[1] 叶伟雄[2] 李英杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [2]香港理工大学

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2007年第2期48-58,79,共12页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(重点)资助项目(70231010)

摘　　要：从分析现有CRM(客户关系管理)系统的缺失入手,强调了销售以客户“人”为分析基点的重要性,在此基础上给出了一类销售过程的简化状态指标.应用该思路、指标、借助于Pfeifer和Carraway的思路、利用Markov链建立商家与客户关系模型,就有限次销售的一次交易、多次交易及无限次销售的情况分别给出相应分析结果.并考虑企业实际运作,进一步讨论了该模型下不同销售策略模型的响应.结果表明,减少成功率小的销售活动,企业期望获利会更大些.Beginning from the analysis of the lack in CRM＇s （customer relationship management）, the importance that selling should operate based on the analysis of customer himself is emphasized, and the simplified state guide line is given. A CRM model is set based on this thought, the index, Pfeifer and Carraway＇ s model and Markov chain, then the corresponding computing result and their analysis are given for the case of one period and more periods selling in finite horizon, also the case in infinite horizon. Considering the practice, the model＇s result is discussed, based on the different selling policies. The result shows decreasing those sales with smaller success probabi lities will help the enterprise to get more profit.

关 键 词：CRM 马尔可夫链 关系 模型 

分 类 号：F276.6[经济管理—企业管理]