不同物理过程参数化方案对贵州降水预报的敏感性试验  

Sensitive Experiments of Various Parameterization Schemes in Different Physical Processes on Guizhou Precipitation

作　　者：伍红雨 陈德辉[2] 徐国强[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州省山地环境气候研究所,550002 [2]中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《气象》2007年第4期23-28,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：贵州省科技基金(2006)2102;中国气象局2007年多轨道业务建设项目"西南地区滑坡和泥石流灾害气象监测预警业务服务系统"共同资助

摘　　要：利用我国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES,采用6个不同的参数化方案组合:即选择Kessler、NCEP3-class simple ice和simple ice(developed by LiuQijun,CAMS)微物理过程参数化方案和Kain-Fritsch(new Eta)、Betts-Miller-Janjic积云参数化方案形成6个组合,对2004年贵州汛期的降水过程进行48小时的预报试验,对预报结果进行对比分析并与实况资料进行比较、检验。结果表明:GRAPES模式适合对贵州的降水预报;积云参数化方案对降水的影响比微物理过程参数化方案对降水的影响大。simpleice方案与Betts-Miller-Janjic方案组合对贵州降水的预报较好,这些结果对提高GRAPES模式对贵州降水的预报能力有一定的参考意义。Based on the new generation numerical prediction model GRAPES （Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System）, with three kinds of physics option parameterization schemes（Kessler schemes, NCEP3 _ class simple ice schemes and simple ice schemes （ developed by Liu Qinjun, CAMS） ） and two kinds of cumulus parameterization schemes （Kain-Fritsch （new Eta） and Betts-Miller-Janjic）, six combinational schemes are formed. 48-hour predicting experiments are made for the precipitation cases in the rainy season in Guizhou. Comparisons among the experiments and analyses of the observations indicate that GRAPES model can be used for predicting Guizhou precipitation. The predicting effect of cumulus parameterization schemes is better than that of physics option parameterization schemes. The predicting Guizhou precipitation ability of combinational schemes with simple ice scheme physics option parameterization, Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus parameterization is superior to the others. These results are useful for improving the GRAPES model for predicting Guizhou precipitation.

关 键 词：GRAPES模式 参数化方案 降水预报 敏感性试验 

分 类 号：P457.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]