热带气旋集合预报中的不确定性研究  

Study on the uncertainty of ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone

作　　者：张庆红[1] 张春喜[1] 张中锋[2] 万齐林[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京100871 [2]中国民航华北空管局气象处,北京100621 [3]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广州510080

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2007年第3期701-706,共6页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：973项目(2004CB418301);国家自然科学基金项目(40675022;40375017;40233036;60572184)资助

摘　　要：综合考虑了数值天气预报过程中的两种不确定性:初值和模式的不确定性,建立了一个拥有20个成员的中尺度集合预报系统来模拟1997年热带气旋Danny的路径和对流系统.发现模拟气旋路径的集合平均误差在12h以后比所有成员的误差都小.通过考察模拟结果对各种不确定性的敏感性,发现两种不确定性在模拟中都很重要,但不同的不确定性对模拟结果的贡献是不同的.初值的不确定性主要影响模式积分的前12h,模式的不确定性在整个积分过程中始终存在.不确定性最敏感的区域主要分布在气旋附近的强天气区.There are two main sources of estimate uncertainty in Numerical Weather Prediction （NWP）, i.e., initial value-related uncertainty, model-related uncertainty. A 20-member mesoscale ensemble forecasting system including these two kinds of uncertainty is set up to simulate tropical cyclone Danny 1997. The track of ensemble mean is the best compared with all 20 members after 12 h. The sensitivity of simulation result to the two kinds of uncertainty is studied. The result shows that both 2 kinds of uncertainty make an important role in simulation, but they dominate in the different time period during the simulation. The initial value-related uncertainty dominates the simulation during 0 - 12 h of model integration. The model-related uncertainty grows steadily during model integration. High sensitive area of uncertainty is located where sever weather occur around the center of cyclone.

关 键 词：热带气旋 集合预报 不确定性 初值 模式 

分 类 号：P567[天文地球—构造地质学]