山西干旱的气候变化特征及多尺度组合预测模型  

Climatic Characteristics of Drought in Shanxi Province and the Multi-scale Integration Prediction Model for Drought

作　　者：姚彩霞[1] 魏凤英[2] 韩雪[3] 任璞[1] 杨英[1] 郭俊龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西省气象台,太原030006 [2]中国气象科学研究院 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《气象》2007年第5期100-104,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象科学研究院院长基金资助

摘　　要：使用山西省内59个测站1961—2005年月降水量、月平均气温资料和同期北半球500hPa高度、北太平洋10°S^50°N、120°E^80°W范围的海表温度等资料,首先定义了表征山西干旱程度的指数;使用三次样条函数及功率谱等统计方法分析了山西省干旱的气候特点及其前兆信号。分析结果表明,山西干旱不仅具有明显的年代际变化特征,此外还具有2年、3.5年和5.6年的显著年际变化特征。在此分析基础上对原华北多尺度组合干旱预测模型进行了改进与调整,建立了山西干旱的多尺度组合预测模型,并进行了一系列预测效果检验。2000—2005年各月、季独立样本的干旱等级预测结果表明,该预测模型对山西大部分地区的干旱具有较好的预测能力。Using the monthly precipitation and temperature dataset from 59 stations over Shanxi Province, and the 500hPa height data in North hemisphere and sea surface temperature over 10°S -50°N,120°E-80°W in North Pacific during 1961 - 2005, first of all, the index which represent the drought grade in Shanxi Province were defined; secondly, the climatic variability and anterior signals of drought in Shanxi were analyzed by using the triple spline-function and power spectrum. The results show that the drought exhibits a statistically significant interdecadal variability and interannual timescale variabilities with near 2 year, 3.5 year and 5.6 year periods. Based on this analysis, a Huabei predicting drought model on an integration of multi-scale was improved and modulated and a series of prediction results were proof-tested in months and seasons. By analyzing the forecast of drought grade in months and seasons during 2000 - 2005, it shows that the modeling technique catches the change in drought well and exhibits a higher prediction skill.

关 键 词：多尺度 干旱预测 检验 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]