基于贝叶斯网络的营销风险评价研究  

Research on Marketing Risk Assessment Based on Bayes Network

作　　者：李军[1] 陈士俊[1] 张云起[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]山东工商学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2007年第3期42-48,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家软科学基金项目(2005DGQ4D165);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-04-0652)

摘　　要：由于营销环境的多变性、营销系统的不稳定性和营销管理的复杂性,从而使得企业营销具有较高的风险性。营销风险的大小由风险发生概率和风险损失幅度决定,而在实践中,概率大小是难以确定的。本文通过贝叶斯网络(BN)的结构学习和概率学习,综合先验信息和后验信息,结合企业实际构建了营销风险评价指标体系和BN分析模型,进行了营销风险概率推断,在此基础上进行了营销风险评价。Due to the variability of marketing environment, uncertainty of marketing system and the complexity of marketing management, enterprises will confront higher risk in marketing. The measurement of the marketing risk is decided by both the probability of risk and the risk loss range. However, the probability is difficult to be determined in practice. Through the study of Bayes network structure and the probability, synthesizing the prior information and posterior information, index system for evaluating marketing risk and BN analysis model are established in the paper, and probability of marketing risk is deduced. Finally,marketing risk is evaluated by the methods proposed in the paper.

关 键 词：营销风险 贝叶斯网络 主成分分析 D-S证据理论 BN分析模型 

分 类 号：F405[经济管理—产业经济]