基于过度自信的相关研究及应用综述  

Reviews on Correspondent Theory and Application Study on the Basis of Overconfidence

作　　者：黄健柏[1] 杨涛[1] 朱学红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《预测》2007年第3期1-7,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70672016);教育部科学技术重点资助项目(104260);湖南省哲学社会科学基金资助项目(0403019)

摘　　要：自2002年诺贝尔奖授予行为经济学代表人物卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)和史密斯(Vernonl Smith)教授后,行为经济学理论越来越受到经济学家们的关注,传统经济学理论面临着新的挑战。行为经济学的灵感主要源自心理学,而在心理学领域有关个人判断的研究成果中,最强的结论就是人们是过度自信的。本文在综合国内外最新研究文献的基础上,首先阐述了过度自信理论基础及证据,并深入剖析了过度自信的特点,然后结合过度自信在经济领域的应用现状,指出了基于过度自信的行为经济理论进一步拓展的方向。Nobel Economic Prize is awarded to behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Vernonl Smith in 2002. More and more Economists pay great attention to behavioral economic theories and traditional economic theories face challenge. Inspirations of behavioral economic stem from Psychology. The robust conclusion about individual judgment in psychology is that people are usually overconfidence. Foreign and domestic up to date papers are synthesized in this paper. Firstly, overconfidence theories and evidences are discussed. Secondly, the characteristics of overconfidence is analyzed. Lastly the further directions of behavioral economic theories based on overconfidence are indicated integrated with the application of overconfidence in economic.

关 键 词：过度自信 心理学 行为经济学 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] F0[哲学宗教—心理学]