洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(Ⅱ)——基于集对分析理论  

Method Discussion on Integrated Risk Analysis of Flood Disaster—Based on Set Pair

作　　者：李继清[1] 张玉山[2] 王丽萍[1] 纪昌明[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利水电工程系,北京102206 [2]国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室,北京100053

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2007年第9期51-57,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50579019);武汉大学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(whu2005B018)

摘　　要：对洪灾系统作综合风险研究,已是防洪减灾理论发展的一大趋势.在洪灾风险的同异反综合分析方法(概念模型)的基础上,以不确定性系数i对风险的影响为切入点,并进行适当的扩展与变换,将同异反综合分析方法进一步深入,建立了洪灾综合风险分析的模拟模型框架,初步得到了洪灾综合风险分析的可行途径.It is bound to be a trend in flood control and calamity reduction that the study direction of flood disaster system will be diverted into synthetic risk. Based on the identicaldifferent-opposite synthetic analysis method of .flood disaster risk （conceptual model ）, attributing the influence of uncertain coefficient I on risk of corresponding order and taking further appropriate expand or transformation, this paper established that the framework of simulative model for integrated risk analysis of flood disaster. The feasible approach is primary gained for integrated risk analysis of flood disaster.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 综合风险 集对分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]