季节周期回归模型在肿瘤住院病人中的应用分析  

Application of Regression Model to Predict Seasonal Trend of Cancer Patient Numbers

作　　者：魏跃红[1] 王鸣[1] 许信红[1] 潘冰莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心,广州510080

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2007年第4期339-341,共3页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：安徽省教育厅科研基金(No.2002kj150)

摘　　要：目的了解1999-2004年庐江县某二甲医院肿瘤住院患者的基本构成,并预测2005-2007年该院肿瘤住院患者人数,为医院管理决策提供科学依据。方法整理该院1999-2004年《医院疾病分类年报表》资料,进行统计描述和季节趋势预测。结果1999-2004年该医院肿瘤患者住院人数占同期总住院人数的10.72%,预计2005-2007年肿瘤住院患者分别为1216例、1287例和1359例,且有明显逐年增加趋势。结论该院肿瘤患者住院人数在同期总住院人数中占有相当比重,且有逐年增加趋势。医院管理者应合理分配卫生资源,加强肿瘤科室的建设。Objective To analyze the dynamics of cancer inpatients in a general hospital in Lujiang County between 1999 and 2004, and to forecast the number of cancer inpatients from 2005 to 2007. Method Retrospective descriptive analysis of cancer inpatients was conducted in this study. Patient information was obtained from the annual report from the hospital, Seasonal trend in patient numbers was predicted using a regression model. Result During 1999 to 2004, 10.72% of inpatients were cancer patients. The predicted number of cancer inpatients in 2005, 2006 and 2007 is 1216,1287 and 1359, respectively. Conclusion The number of cancer inpatients was substantially increased between 1999 and 2004, and there is a tendency to increase in number. Resources for cancer caring should be increased.

关 键 词：肿瘤 住院病人 构成分析 季节周期模型 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]