烟台市人口分析及预测  

Population Analysis and Prediction of Yantai City

作　　者：李清翠[1] 张振华[1] 谢恒星[1] 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学地理与资源管理学院,山东烟台364025

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2007年第3期80-81,共2页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：烟台师范学院重点基金项目(043201);人才引进基金(000444)资助

摘　　要：利用时间序列分析模型和GM（1,1）模型拟合了烟台市人口数量，并对未来4年烟台市人口进行了预测。结果显示，二次滑动平均模型的相对误差波动范围为-0.731％～0.702％，均接近于0，预测精度最高。利用二次滑动平均模型预测未来4年烟台市人口分别为646．395万人、646．445万人、646．495万人和646．545万人，人口有逐年缓慢上升的趋势。Time series analysis model and GM （1,1） model were applied to fit population of Yantai city, and the population in future four years were predicted. Results showed that the relative error of two-step moving average model arranged from—0.731% to 0.702%, closing to 0, the predicting precision of this model was the highest one. The population in future four years predicted with the two-step moving average model were 6.46395 million, 6.46445 million, 6.46495 million and 6.46545 million, respectively, it would be ascending gradually year by year.

关 键 词：时间序列分析模型 GM(1 1)模型 拟合精度 预测 

分 类 号：C92-03[社会学—人口学]