根据i-f-j模式估计山西平陆地区的长期强震潜势  

ESTIMATING TENDENCY OF LONG TERM STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN SHANXI'S PINGLU DISTRICT ACCORDING TO I-F-J MODE

作　　者：胡先明[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省地震局

出　　处：《地震研究》1997年第2期193-198,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：山西省平陆地区位于山西地震带南端，为了分析该地区未来的长期强震潜势，本文较系统地分析了当地的破坏性地震及１５００年以来的有感地震资料，并进一步应用中国大陆特征地震轮回模式〔１〕及其复发时间概率模型〔２〕估算当地当前特征地震轮回的平均时间间隔，以及从１９９５年起未来百年内复发强震的概率。结果表明：未来１００年内该地区复发强震的危险性很高。Shanxi′s Pinglu district is located in the south end of Shanxi seismic belt. In order to analyze the tendency of long term strong earthquakes in the future, in this paper, the author has systematically analyzed the data of the local damaging earthquakes and felt earthquakes since 1500, furthermore, using seismic cycle mode of characteristic earthquakes in China Continent and its probability model of recurrence to estimate the current averaging time intervals of characteristic earthquake cycles in the local place and recurrence probability of strong earthquakes in the coming 100 years starting from 1995. The results show that the risk of recurrence of strong earthquakes is rather high, and the risk within 50 years can not be exclusive.

关 键 词：强震 地震复发 历史地震 山西 地震 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]