基于信息扩散估计的洪水风险分析  

Flood Risk Analysis Based on Information Diffuse Estimation

作　　者：李梅[1] 张洪波[1] 黄强[1] 佟春生[1] 薛小杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院

出　　处：《中北大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第3期193-198,共6页Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40501011;5067070);陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(2006D09)

摘　　要：针对信息扩散估计的过扩散和欠扩散问题,在分析择近窗宽法和最优窗宽法的基础上,结合二者的优点,提出了一种确定扩散窗宽的多目标综合优化方法.经对2χ分布和F分布的检验表明,该方法能较好地逼近理论分布曲线.应用该法对黄河干流龙门站年最大流量的洪水风险进行分析,得到了最大流量概率密度分布函数以及不同重现期的估计值,为维持黄河的健康提供了较为客观的依据.Aim at the overdiffuse and subdiffuse of information diffuse estimation, a multi-subject integrated optimization was given to determine diffused window width based on analyzing closest window width means and optimal window width means. By testing X^2 and F distribution of data, it was proved that the method had a better approach to theoretical distribution curve than above two methods. To research its effect in flood risk analysis, the maximum discharge was took at Longmen station in the main stream of the yellow river as an example, and probability density distribution function of maximum discharge and the estimated value of different recurrence intervals were obtained. They could be used as the more objective data to protect the yellow river health.

关 键 词：信息扩散 综合优化 概率密度估计 风险分析 重现期 

分 类 号：TN911[电子电信—通信与信息系统] P333.9[电子电信—信息与通信工程]