人误因素分析在船舶撞击立管概率计算中的应用  

APPLICATION OF THE ANALYSIS OF HUMAN ERRORS' FACTORS FOR THE PROBABILITY CALCULATION FOR SHIP COLLISIONS ON RISERS

作　　者：杨怿[1] 郭振邦[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《中国海洋平台》2007年第3期40-43,共4页China offshore Platform

摘　　要：采用了Pontecorvo人因失误模型并结合故障树分析方法,对船舶撞击海洋平台进而撞击输油立管事故中的人误因素进行分析,提出了撞击概率计算公式中因子P2的计算方法,为海底管线在偶然性载荷作用下的定量风险评估提供参考。This paper adopts the Pontecorvo human errors model , together with Fault Tree Analysis Methodology, to make an analysis for human factors in ship collisions on the offshore platforms and risers. Appropriately presented is the methodology for computing the factor P2 of the ship collision probability formula, which provides the references for quantitative risk evaluation for offshore pipelines under accidental loads.

关 键 词：人因失误 故障树 Pontccorvo人因失误模型 

分 类 号：P752[天文地球—海洋科学]