条件数在台风移动路径预报中的应用  

Application of condition number to forecasting moving track of typhoon

作　　者：黄小燕 金龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西南宁市气象局,广西南宁530022 [2]广西气象减灾研究所,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2007年第3期35-40,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科技部社会公益性研究专项资助(2004DIB3J122)

摘　　要：以1960-2001年41年中每年7月份西行进入南海海域的台风样本为基础,综合考虑台风移动路径的气候持续因子和数值预报产品的物理量场因子,运用条件数方法选取因子并建立回归方程,进行了台风路径的预报建模研究。由于采用条件数计算分析方法可以有效减少和控制自变量之间的复共线性关系,因此,所建立的台风移动路径模型具有较好的预报效果,24小时的预报误差仅为136.29 km。另外,还进一步将该预报方法与国内外普遍采用的气候持续法台风移动路径预报方法进行了对比分析,结果表明,该方法的预报精度要高于气候持续法。Based on the samples of typhoon entering into South China Sea area in July from 1960 through 2001 ,the climate persistance factor of typhoon＇s moving track and the field factor of physical quantily was considered. The factors was selected with condition number method and corresponding regression equation was established and the modelling of typhoon＇s moving track was carried out. Because adoption of condition number analysis can reduce and control multi-collinearity between variables, then the established model for typhoon＇s moving track has a better prediction and the error for 24 h prediction is only 136.29 km. In addition, comparison between presented method and climate persistance method commonly adoped at home and abroad was conducted. The result shows that the former＇s precision is higher than that of the latter.

关 键 词：台风路径 条件数 复共线性 预报 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]