城市交通需求综合预测方法  

A Comprehensive Forecasting Method for Urban Traffic Demands

作　　者：刘安[1] 王正[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学(道交系,建筑城规学院),上海200092

出　　处：《系统工程》1997年第3期38-45,共8页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：本文针对“四阶段”预测方法的不足,基于个体出行决策行为的同时性解释和城市交通网络的拓扑处理,构建了城市交通需求综合预测模型CFM及其算法CFA.CFM能够同时产生出行生成、OD空间分布、交通方式划分以及交通量分配预测结果,从而缩短了传统的需求分析步骤,提高了交通预测精度.With regarding to some drawbacks of the traditional Four - Step analysis method, a CFM (Comprehensive Forecasting Model) and its algorithms CFA (Comprehensive Forecasting Algoritm) for urban traffic demands, Based on the topology of urban traffic networks and the simultaneous pattern of individual trip decision behavior, are developed in this paper. CFM, which shortens the traffic forecasting procedure and is capable of improving the forecasting accuracy, can produce the forecasting result of trip generation, OD matrix, modal split and traffic assignment simultaneously.

关 键 词：交通需求 网络拓扑 综合预测 城市 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]