用模糊数学方法刻划公众对天气预报的感受度  

Characterizing the Public Perception of the Accurate Degree of the Weather Forecast with the Fuzzy Mathematics Method

作　　者：王志龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州工业高等专科学校基础部,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2007年第14期212-219,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金(3ZS041-A25-004)项目资助;甘肃省教育厅科研基金(0601-20)项目资助

摘　　要：气象部门将6小时的降雨按降雨量划分为无雨、小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨、大暴雨及特大暴雨七个级别进行预报,这与公众感受认可这些降雨量级别的程度是有差异的.即使气象部门预报的很准,这种差异有可能使公众感受到降雨级别的程度和预报的级别不符,从而认为预报得不准确,用模糊数学的方法对公众的感受度进行了刻划,给出了计算预报数据与公众感受度差异的数值公式及方法.The Meteorological Department conducts the weather forecast according to rainfall in six hour. The rainfall is divided into seven classes, which are no rain, light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, hard rain, cloudburst, and extraordinary cloudburst. Even if the weather forecast is very accurate, the public feel that is not true because there is the difference between the weather forecast and the public perception. This kind of difference causes the public to feel that real rainfall class don＇t match with the class of the forcast. In this paper we characterize the public perception of the accurate degree of the weather forecast with the fuzzy mathematics method, and provide number formulas and methodes that are used to compute differences between forecast data and public perception.

关 键 词：降雨量等级 公众感受度 感受度模糊集 感受度离差 感受度方差 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学] P45[理学—基础数学]