上海市徐汇区1995—2005年肺癌死亡率趋势分析  

Time trend analysis of lung cancer mortality in 1995-2005 Xuihui district Shanghai

作　　者：顾海雁[1] 黄萍萍[1] 李申生[1] 周雷[1] 倪红伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市徐汇区疾病预防控制中心,上海200031

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2007年第7期328-330,共3页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市疾病预防控制中心基金项目(区2006-13)

摘　　要：[目的]分析上海市徐汇区肺癌年龄别死亡趋势和肺癌死亡率近年来的发展态势,为制定有效的卫生政策、防治措施和合理调配卫生资源提供科学依据。[方法]用简略寿命表法估计肺癌造成的平均寿命损失,采用Poisson回归模型估计1995—2005年肺癌死亡趋势,估计期望年平均百分变化,并用指数函数拟合死亡率趋势曲线。[结果]肺癌死亡率随年龄增长;男女肺癌死亡率之比（IRR）为2.2603（95%CI：2.2143~2.4051）,死亡率性别比11年基本稳定;肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,年平均增加2.37%（95%CI：1.45%~3.30%）。[结论]肺癌死亡率资料符合Poisson分布,可评价年龄别死亡趋势和历年发展趋势;烟草消费的持续增长和老龄化问题使肺癌预防和控制工作更加艰巨;男女肺癌死亡率年龄别性别比相对稳定也提示环境因素的重要作用。[ Objective ] Using the most comprehensive available data of lung neoplasm mortality in Xuihui District, Shanghai, the mortality time trend and age trend were described, so as to provide evidence and reference for basic research and make prevention and control strategy for lung cancer. [ Methods ] Statistical analysis of mortality and lung cancer eliminated life expectancy was done on the data from population monitoring from 1995 - 2005. Based on the log - linear model （ based on Poisson distribution ）, the trend of mortality and expected average percentage change （ EAPC ） were estimated. [ Results ] The lung cancer mortality rates increased with people＇ s aging. The lung cancer IRR of male vs female was 2. 2603 （95% CI：2. 2143 - 2. 4051 ） and showed stabihty during the study period. Meanwhile the lung cancer mortality rates increased during these 11 years and the results showed EAPC was 2.37% （ 95% CI： 1.45% - 3.30% ） . [ Conclusion] The data of lung cancer deaths are suitable for analyzing age and year trends according to Poisson distribution. The prevention and control for this disease will be the emphasis for future lung cancer control strategy. Tobacco control is critically important while the stability of IRR of male vs female implied that the enviroment is also important.

关 键 词：肺肿瘤 死亡率 POISSON分布 趋势 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]