基于神经网络的恶劣天气下飞机损失率预测  

Aircraft Loss Probability Forecast under Bad Weather Based on Neural Network

作　　者：苏畅[1] 宋亚兵[1] 杨世龙[1] 李锋[2] 张恒喜[2] 

机构地区：[1]93033部队机械教研室 [2]空军工程大学工程学院

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2007年第15期3524-3526,3567,共4页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：为了很好地了解天气对飞行的影响,做好相关预防工作。分析了天气对飞行的影响机理,确定了主要天气影响要素,在此基础上建立了神经网络预测模型。在飞行前依据当日天气实况或预报,可对恶劣天气可能造成的飞机损失概率进行预测,为依据天气制定飞机飞行计划提供了一种科学的决策支持方法。In order to know the weather＇s influence to flight and do well in taking precautions, a mechanism of the influence was analyzed and the primary influencing factors were found out. Based on the above, the neural network model was set up. According to the weather forecast or what is actually happening of the day, the aircraft loss probability because of bad weather could be predicted before flying. A scientific decision making method was provided to establish flight plan according to the weather.

关 键 词：神经网络 恶劣天气 飞机损失率 预测 

分 类 号：P42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] V235[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]