公交运行状况改善与客流量之间的灵敏度分析  

Sensitivity analysis between improvement of public transit working conditions and passenger demands

作　　者：潘艳荣[1] 邓卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京210096

出　　处：《东南大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第4期686-690,共5页Journal of Southeast University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2006CB705501)

摘　　要：为了实时掌握公交运行状况改善后各种交通方式客流特别是公交客流的变化,将不同交通方式的运行状况用平均运行时间和运行时间可靠度2个指标来表示,并将其引入到效用函数中,应用Log it模型得出同一OD对间不同交通方式的客流量.在此基础上提出了OD对客流在不同交通方式间的均衡配流模型,然后采用灵敏度分析方法中存在2个或多个扰动参数的情形设计了公交运行状况改善与客流量间的关系模型.实例计算表明该模型与算法是有效的.To timely grasp the passenger demands of different traffic modes after improving on public transit, the working conditions of different modes are denoted by travel time and its reliability, So the two indices are introduced into utility function, The passenger demands for same origin-destination （OD） are obtained by a Logit model. And an equilibrium model for different traffic modes is proposed, Under this condition, the relationship between the improvement of public transit working conditions and passenger demands is modeled using sensitivity analysis method. Finally, the application of sensitivity analysis is illustrated by a simple numeral example,

关 键 词：运行状况 改善 运行时间 可靠度 效用函数 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]