城市降雨径流模型的参数局部灵敏度分析  

Local sensitivity analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling

作　　者：黄金良[1] 杜鹏飞[1] 何万谦[1] 欧志丹[2] 王浩昌[1] 王志石[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境科学与工程系,北京100084 [2]澳门大学科技学院

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2007年第4期549-553,共5页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家"973"项目(2006CB403407)

摘　　要：运用Morris筛选法对城市降雨径流模型SWMM的水文水力模块的相关参数进行局部灵敏度分析,以便对模型灵敏参数识别和不确定性分析.结果表明,影响3场降雨径流深的最灵敏度参数均为不透水率,灵敏度分别是0.88,0.98和0.43.影响峰值流量的灵敏参数因不同雨强的降雨场次存在波动,雨强最大的降雨最灵敏参数为管道曼宁糙率,雨强最小的降雨最灵敏参数为无低洼地不透水区所占百分比.不同降雨强度SWMM模型水文水力模块的灵敏参数有所差异,尤其是下渗率相关的参数.Sensitivity analysis （SA） is a crucial procedure for parameter identification and uncertainty analysis. Local sensitivity analysis using Morris screening method was carded out for urban rainfall runoff modeling based on Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The most sensitive parameter for runoff depth of three rainfall events all was the percentage of imperviousness, with sensitivity indices of 0.88, 0.98 and 0.43 respectively. In comparison, sensitivity indices （Morris） ranking for peak flow varies of rainfall events with different rainfall intensity, namely, the most sensitive parameter was conduit Manning coefficient for the rainfall event with the largest rainfall intensity, whereas the most sensitive parameter was %zero-Imperviousness for the rainfall event with the lowest rainfall intensity. Additionally, sensitivity indices rankings of parameters especially with respect to the infiltration rate of SWMM model also relates greatly to the rainfall intensity. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify the important parameters for runoff depth and peak flow, which proved to be a beneficial tool to aid for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of SWMM model.

关 键 词：Moms筛选法 SWMM模型 局部灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]