黄河源区气候和土地覆被变化对径流的影响  

Influence of climate and land-cover change on runoff of the source regions of Yellow River

作　　者：陈利群[1] 刘昌明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2007年第4期559-565,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家"973"项目(G1999043601)

摘　　要：采用2个分布式水文模型（SWAT和VIC）分析了1960-2000年黄河源区气候变化和土地覆被对径流的影响．分析表明．气候变化是径流减少的主要原因，20世纪90年代以前，土地覆被变化对径流影响很小，气候变化对径流的影响在95％PA上．70～90年代，气候变化的水文效应大约为65%-80％；土地利用变化的影响大致为6%-16％；生态退化，冻土融化等的水文效应大约为14％～20％．20世纪90年代气候变化主要体现在黄河源区降水的时空分布发生改变和气温的升高上．Runoff of the source regions of Yellow River decreased sharply in the 1990s, producing serious imbalance on water resource allocation and water pollution protection of Yellow River basin. Two distributed hydrologic models （SWAT and VIC） were adopted to analyzed the influence of climate and land-cover change on runoff between 1960 to 2000. The climate change was the main cause of runoff decrease. Before 1990, land cover change influenced a little on the runoff, the influence of climate change on the runoff was above 95%. In 1970-1990, the hydrologic effect of climate was about 65%-80%; the influence of land use change was probably 6%-16%; the hydrologic effect of eco-degradation and melt of frozen soil was almost 14%-20%. In the 1990s, the climate change was showing mainly the occurrence of the time and space distribution change of the precipitation in the source region of Yellow River and the raise of air temperature.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 VIC模型 黄河源区 气候变化 土地覆被 径流 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X16