基于统计预测算法的新型网络性能预警系统  

A New Type of Forecast System for Network Traffic Based on Statistical Arithmetic

作　　者：方匡钿[1] 姚奇富[2] 

机构地区：[1]宁波职业技术学院,浙江宁波315800 [2]浙江工商职业技术学院,浙江宁波315012

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2007年第8期106-108,115,共4页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家863项目(2002AA142030);宁波市自然科学基金项目(2006A610012)

摘　　要：随着计算机网络的迅速发展,网络的规模越来越大和复杂,相应对网络有效管理的要求也越来越高。通过对CH INANET上某个端口网络流量数据的统计分析,提出了一种针对网络流量状态某一时刻的历史信息,利用统计预测相关算法对网络性能进行预警的新方法。能根据不同网络运行状态更及时更准确地预测出网络不同时间段的各种异常情况,有效分析网络运行效率并及时发现瓶颈,为优化网络性能提供了有力依据。With the rapid development of computer network, the network becomes larger and more complex , so the demand on the efficiency of network management becomes higher. Through analyzing the traffic data in one port of CHINANET＇S network, a new method that can forecast the network traffic by using some statistical arithmetics on the historical data is put forward . The system in this way not only can forecast many kinds of abnormities of different networks in different time segment exactly, but also can analyse the efficiency and bottleneck of the running network on time. So network managers can optimize the netwrok performance more reasonablely.

关 键 词：网络管理 流量分析 网络性能 预警系统 

分 类 号：TP393.07[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]