1991年夏季苏皖地区洪涝的短期气候距平预测试验  

Prediction Experiments of the Short-Term Climate Anomalies for 1991 Summer Severe Flood in Jiangsu and Anhui Areas

作　　者：李旭[1] 袁重光[1] 曾庆存[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《大气科学》1997年第3期266-272,共7页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

摘　　要：本文叙述了用多种方案对１９９１年夏主要发生在我国江苏、安徽两省的持续性多雨气候进行的跨季度预测试验研究的情况。试验用完全的海气耦合方案、大气模式并保持初始ＳＳＴＡ方案、考虑皮纳图博火山作用、模式系统误差订正以及它们的组合等进行。There occurred a presistent rainy climate in the area of Jangsu and Anhui provinces in 1991 summer. In this paper, the extra-seasonal prediction experiments for this rainy climate with several schemes are described. The following factors are considered in the experiments: (1) the fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean model; (2) the AGCM with the SST anomaly in the initial month; (3) the consideration of the impact of Pintubo vocano; (4) the correction of systemaatic errors in models; and (5) the combination of the above schemes. As a result, the flood and drought have been predicted correctly.

关 键 词：短期气候距平 降水距平 降水预报 洪涝 预测结果 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]