人群密度对人群拥挤事故的影响  

Effects of crowded people density on crushing fatalities

作　　者：冉丽君[1] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2007年第4期135-138,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"奥运会公共风险分析及安全管理系统的研究"(70373031)

摘　　要：为了研究公共场所的人群密度与拥挤事故的发生概率。基于连续人群流动模型,从人群密度角度探讨了人群拥挤事故发生的机理。由于不同民族个体生理尺寸的差异,人群最大忍受密度不同,以此作为判断人群拥挤事故的标准,并结合我国情况提出我国人群最大忍受密度为9人/m2。最后模拟了某个拥挤事故场景,用该模型对其进行拥挤事故分析。结果表明,连续人群流动模型可以用于预测拥挤事故的发生,对预防和控制人群拥挤事故具有一定的指导意义。The present paper is aimed to introduce our research into the effect of the crowded people density on the crushing fatalities. As is known, previous studies have identified the crowd density as the main risk factor leading to such crushing tragedies. In this paper, we have explored the crush fatalities of pedestrians in terms of the density of the crowd while referring to the continuous crowd flow model proposed by Hughes from Australia. According to the feature in different densities of the crowd, we can analyze the crushing accidents based on the here-introduced flow model proposed by Hughes. However, the maximum tolerance limits of the crowd density are also variable, which depend strongly on the physical characteristics of the crowd, or the crowd of pedestrians in particular involved. Integrating the realistic conditions of the Chinese crowd features, we assume the following 9 ped/m^2 as the Chinese max tolerable crowd densities. Consequently, it can be concluded that the model helps to identify the dangerous locations for a crushing accident likely to be taking place. And, in turn, the model proves significant to avoid such accidents and ensure safety of the crowd gathering.

关 键 词：安全管理工程 人群拥挤 事故 人群密度 连续人群流动模型 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]