径流式小水电站年发电量综合预测模型  

A comprehensive model for prediction of annual energy output of run-of-river small hydropower station

作　　者：吴德会[1] 

机构地区：[1]九江学院电子工程系

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2007年第9期78-80,共3页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(70272032;70672096)

摘　　要：针对径流式小水电站电力生产的特点,建立了一种新的多元线性回归(MLR)&最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的年发电量综合预测模型。该模型充分利用径流式小水电站发电量与其影响因素(年来水量、来水离差系数和电网负荷率)之间的关系,并建立与之对应的由初步预测子模型和误差修正子模型两部分组成的综合预测模型。实际预测结果表明,本文所提的综合预测方法能适应径流式小水电站发电量的具体问题,其效果优于常用方法,易于实现。In accordance with the characteristics of the operation of run-of-river small hydropower station, a comprehensive model for prediction of the annual energy output based on multi-linear regression（MLR） and least squares support vector machine（ LS - SVM）is established, which consists of the elementary prediction sub-model and the error correction sub-model and is established on the basis of the relationship between the annual energy output production and the related affecting factors（ annual runoff, deviation coefficient of runoff and loading rate of power network etc）. The actual application shows that the comprehensive prediction model is adaptable to predicting the annual energy output of such a power station with the advantages better than the other conventional methods concerned and it is easy to be realized as well.

关 键 词：径流式小水电站 年发电量 多元线性回归 最小二乘支持向量机 综合预测模型 

分 类 号：TV712[水利工程—水利水电工程]