年龄别患龋率趋势的曲线拟合研究  

A Study on The Curve Fitting of Age Specific Decay Rates

作　　者：阙少聪[1] 游明基[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省卫生防疫站

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》1997年第3期5-8,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：本文以本省某县７２７０名学生年龄别患龋率数据，拟合１３种曲线以研究其趋势，结果发现有３种曲线拟合效果较好且拟合优度近似（Ｒ２＝０９８１～０９８２），即①以非线性回归（ＮＬＲ）拟合所得可逆催化曲线ＥＹ＝〔ａ／（ａ＋ｂ）〕〔１－ｅ－（ａ＋ｂ）ｔ〕、②二次曲线、③Ｍｕｅｎｃｈ原图拟合的可逆催化曲线。发现青少年年龄别患龋率呈可逆催化曲线趋势上升，每年约有８～１１％的人患龋（ａ值），又约有２～６％（ｂ值）的人填龋或被恒齿替补。每年填龋率（ｂ）只是患龋率（ａ）的１／４～１／２，这是年龄别患龋率呈可逆催化曲线趋势上升的根本原因。This is a paper of study on the curve fitting of age specific decay rate.The data of decay rate for 7 270 students were from Fujian province,which were fitted into 13 curves by mean of the commands of SPSS/PC+package.It was found that three kinds of curves shown better goodness of fit (R square=0.981～ 0.982).They are:1.a reversible catalytic model by the authors,EY= a/(a+b) 1-e -(a+b)t ;2.a quadratic curve;3.a reversible catalytic curve by Muench.The fitted curve of age specific decay rate shown the increasing trend of reversible catalytic model.The annual decay rate (Value a)was 8～11%;Meanwhile,the per centage of the students which decay teeth were fitted or replaced by the permanent one were 2～6%(Value b).It is the foundational reason of increasing trend for the curve of decay rates.

关 键 词：患龋率 曲线拟合 年龄别 龋齿 

分 类 号：R781.101[医药卫生—口腔医学] R195.1[医药卫生—临床医学]