基于灰色系统理论的改装汽车销售收入预测模型研究  

A Forecast Model Study of Refit Vehicle Sale Volume Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：笪秉宏[1] 亓四华[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽机电职业技术学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《南京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2007年第2期44-47,共4页Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics（Social Sciences）

基　　金：安徽省教育厅资助项目(2007jyxm527)

摘　　要：我国改装汽车销售收入预测是一个多因素、多层次的复杂系统,其销售收入的时间序列正是该系统内部各因素之间相互制约、相互影响,协调发展的结果。根据灰色系统原理,可不去研究这个复杂的系统内部的因素及相互关系,而从销售收入时间序列这个综合灰色变量本身去挖掘有用信息,利用它的动态记忆性,建立灰色模型来寻找和揭示系统改装汽车销售收入的内在规律,并以此建模,对未来销售收入做出预测。China＇s refit vehicle sale volume is a complicated multi-factor and multi-layer system and its chronological sequence is a result of mutual constraint, mutual influence, and coordinated development of the factors. The factors and their internal relationships, according to Grey System Theory, can be abandoned, while the chronological sequence of sales volume, as a comprehensive grey variant, can be used to find out useful information, that is, its dynamic memory can be used to set up grey model to find out the internal laws for refit vehicle sale volume and further forecast future sale volume.

关 键 词：灰色系统 改装汽车 销售收入 预测模型 

分 类 号：F272.1[经济管理—企业管理]