南京市工业“三废”排放的环境库兹涅茨特征研究  

Research on the EKC Characteristics of the Industrial "Three Wastes" in Nanjing City

作　　者：李彦明[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,南京210093

出　　处：《世界科技研究与发展》2007年第3期82-86,共5页World Sci-Tech R&D

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.40471128);科技部973项目(No.2002CB412400)资助

摘　　要：基于1986～2004年南京市环境经济数据,运用三次环境库兹涅茨模型对工业＂三废＂排放及经济发展的关系进行模拟,研究发现南京市工业＂三废＂排放随经济的发展符合环境库兹涅茨特征,其中工业废水排放量EKC呈N型,已过转折点,目前已处于低谷时期,工业废气排放量EKC呈＂倒N＂形,工业固废生产量EKC与经济发展关系呈同步关系,后两者成为未来南京市环境污染主要来源.分析了南京市工业＂三废＂模拟曲线变化原因,最后根据模拟结果对＂熨平＂南京市工业＂三废＂走势的可行性进行了分析.Based on the environmental and economic data of Nanjing from 1986 to 2004, the Paper used the third power model to simulate the relation between industrial ＂three wastes＂ and economic development. It could be revealed that the relation between industrial ＂three wastes＂ and economic growth accord with the EKC characteristics. The industrial water waste EKC shows an N shape, has already passed the turning point, and now it is in the valley period. The industrial gas waste EKC shows an inverted - U shape, while the industrial solid waste EKC is synchronous with the economic development. The latter two will be the main sources of Nanjing environmental pollution. The Paper analyzed the reasons for the EKC characteristics of Nanjing industrial ＂three wastes＂. According to the result, the feasibility ironing out the trend of EKC curves of the discharge amount of industrial ＂three wastes＂ was analyzed before the environmental threshold has been reached.

关 键 词：工业"三废" 环境库兹涅茨曲线 南京市 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]