21世纪初中国粮食短缺地区的空间格局和区域差异  

Distribution and Regional Difference of Food Shortage in China in 21st Century

作　　者：殷培红[1] 方修琦[1] 马玉玲[2] 田青[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]国家减灾中心灾害信息部,北京100053

出　　处：《地理科学》2007年第4期463-472,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(资助号:40571165)

摘　　要：利用2000～2003年县级统计数据,揭示了2000年以来中国缺粮地区的空间格局和区域差异。考虑气候波动和自然灾害影响,将缺粮区区分为常年缺粮区和潜在缺粮区,同时运用聚类方法,分别将两种缺粮区划分为不同区域类型,重点分析了缺粮的原因以及影响粮食供需平衡的主要因素。表明:中国的常年缺粮区主要分布集中在胡焕庸线以西地区,潜在缺粮区主要分布在此线以东地区。长江以南地区的常年缺粮总量最多;半湿润、半干旱地带上的常年缺粮区,总数最多、分布广,缺粮总量列第二位,同时还存在着不同特点的潜在缺粮区,这里,粮食安全受环境变化影响大,粮食、耕地、经济、环境矛盾突出。Based on the counties＇ statistic data in 2000 - 2003, this paper reveals new regional distribution and difference of food shortage in China in early 21 st century. Considering impacts of climatic fluctuation and natural disasters, two types of food-shortage region are given out. One is the food-shortage region in average year that the per capita grain yield is lower than 300kg. Another is the potential food-shortage region that the per capita grain yield is lower than 430kg in average year, which would be lower than 300kg once grain yield is reduced 30% for natural disasters. In order to analyze main reasons of food-shortage and influential factors of grain supply-demand, two types of food-shortage regions are grouped into some sub-types by k-means cluster respectively. The main conclusions are as follows. （1） There are 583 food-shortage counties, about 28% of total 2075 counties and cities at county level in China, and 698 potential food-shortage counties, about 33.6% of total. The food-shortage regions in average year are mainly distributed in the planting area and semi-pasture area west to the sideline of population density near Heihe City in Heilongjiang Province to Tengchong City in Yunnan Province, namely Huhuanyong Sideline of pop- ulation geography in China. On the contrary, the potential food-shortage regions are distributed widely in the area eastward to Huhuanyong Sideline. （2） Food-shortage regions in average year in China concentrate on the semi-humid and semi-arid area and the area southern to the Changjiang（Yangtze） River. The first area has the largest numbers, covers the widest range, and ranks the 2nd of population and quantity of food shortage. The second area, mostly located in hill area, has the largest population and quantity of food shortage. （3） In the semi-arid and semi-humid transitional zone, the distribution of food-shortage region in average year is dominated, and there are different sub-types of potential food-shortage region as well. More attention should be p

关 键 词：粮食短缺 空间格局 区域差异 粮食安全 中国 

分 类 号：F319.9[经济管理—产业经济]