基于系统动力学的供应链稳定性判据研究  

Stability criterion of supply chain based on system dynamics

作　　者：罗昌[1] 贾素玲[1] 王惠文[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2007年第9期1762-1767,共6页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70521001);教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(06JD630001)~~

摘　　要：为了定量分析供应链系统的稳定性问题,提出了一种基于系统动力学方法的供应链稳定性判据。通过仿真表明,该判据可以描述供应链系统在一阶指数延迟和纯时间延迟两种典型延迟模式下的非线性动态特性,也可以用来研究决策行为对供应链稳定性的影响。仿真结果显示,一阶指数延迟系统具有恒稳定特性,但随决策参数变化会产生分岔效应;纯时间延迟系统中存在一个保证系统稳定的边界,这一边界也决定了决策的可行域。To conduct quantitative analysis on the stability of supply chain system with Order-Up-To （OUT） policy, a system-dynamics-based criterion for stability judgment was proposed. With simulation, the criterion could be used to describe the nonlinearities of supply chain system with 1st order exponential lag and Pure Time Delay （PTD）. The criterion could be used to judge the influences exerted on supply chain stability by decision behavior. The simulation demonstrated two different results. Firstly, the 1st order system was usually stable, but there was fork effect as decision parameter changed. Secondly, there was a critical stable bound in PTD system, which determined feasible filed of decision.

关 键 词：供应链 系统动力学 稳定性 仿真 牛鞭效应 

分 类 号：F273.4[经济管理—企业管理] C931[经济管理—国民经济]