流感样病例监测系统数据异常波动与预警分析  

Analysis on data deviation of influenza-like case surveillance system and forecasting

作　　者：宁芳[1] 段玮[1] 高培[1] 松凯[1] 周素梅[1] 沈壮[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心应急中心,100013

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2007年第10期1210-1211,共2页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：北京市外国专家局课题(BA2006-01)

摘　　要：目的通过分析流感样病例监测系统监测结果,探讨监测系统中数据异动的修订与预警预报方法。方法依据北京市流感监测方案,重点选择流感样病例监测系统中67家监测哨点医院2007年1月1日～1月14日监测数据,对流感样病例占门诊量百分比(ILI%)结果进行调整。结果2007年前2周监测结果显示:ILI%平均为6.50%(范围5.08%～9.37%),调整后ILI%平均为10.75%(范围9.46%～11.57%),调整ILI%指标敏感性和准确性高于未调整的ILI%。结论流感样病例监测系统监测数据易受政策措施、媒体宣传、规章制度等诸多因素影响,密切关注监测数据出现的异常波动,及时核实分析并进行有效的修订,可有效提高监测系统的预警预报能力。Objective To analyse the influenza-like cases collected via surveillance system from end of 2006 to beginning of 2007, so as to promote methods of adjusting the data deviation in surveillnce system and analyzing the forecasting. Methods According to the 2006--2007 Influenza Surveillance Plan of Beijing, the surveillance data collected from Jan 1, 2007 to Jan 14, 2007 in the 67 sample hospitals in influenza-like surveillance system was selected, for leverage the adjustment to ILI% indicator. Results The results of the first two weeks of 2007 showed：orlginal ILI% in average was 6.50% （range from 5.08 % to 9.37 % ）, while ILI % adjusted was 10.75 % （range from 9.46 % to 11.57 % ） in average, which showed the sensitivity and accuracy of ILl % indicator after adjustment was better. Conclusion The surveillance data collected by the surveillance system was affected by many factors such as government policy, medium and regulations. By dcely tracking and analyzing the deviation of surveillance data, as well as efficiently adjusting, the forecasting capability of surveillance system may be improved.

关 键 词：流感样病例 流感样病例占门诊量百分比(ILI%) 调整ILI% 预警预报 

分 类 号：R154[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]