基于改进四阶段法的停车换乘系统需求预测模型研究  

Parking and Riding Demand Forecast Model Based on Advanced Four-stage Method

作　　者：黄一峰[1] 靳文舟[1] 李俊辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学,广州510640

出　　处：《交通与计算机》2007年第4期22-25,共4页Computer and Communications

摘　　要：在停车换乘(P&R)需求预测过程中,重点是出行方式的划分和选择,而引入停车换乘系统后,这一基本前提发生了根本性的变化,即市民一次出行方式和路线的选择要考虑多方式的联合和竞争。因此在方式划分和选择阶段引入多项Log it模型,基于效用最大化理论的前提下,借助EMM E/2软件进行需求预测分析。实践和经验证明,文中所建立的模型递推形式有利于计算机编程实现,且有更高的精确度。In the process of parking and riding demand forecast, the modal split and selection of travel modes should be stressed. The basic premise has undergone a fundamental change since the parking and riding system was introduced. That is, people have to consider a variety of means of joint and competition in choosing travel modes and routes. Therefore, in the phase of modal split and selection of travel modes, a number of Logit Models must be introduced. Based on the utility maximization theory and the software platform of EMME/2, demand forecast analysis should be employed. Practice and experience have proved that the recursion algorithm of the model is suitable for computer programming and such a method is more precise. This method has been widely recognized and applied in the world.

关 键 词：停车换乘 LOGIT模型 效用函数 EMME/2 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]