解集GCM输出模拟黄土塬区土壤水分平衡的潜在变化  

Downscaling GCM output to simulate potential change of soil water balance on loess tableland

作　　者：李志[1] 刘文兆[2] 张勋昌 郑世清[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [3]USDA-ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory,El Reno,OK,USA

出　　处：《生态学报》2007年第9期3769-3777,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流资助项目(40640420061);中国科学院海外杰出学者基金资助项目(2005-2-3);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划资助项目(90202011)~~

摘　　要：土壤水分平衡对气候变化存在着响应,在全球变化的大背景下,研究土壤水分的可能变化是气候变化影响评估中非常重要的一项内容。目标是利用经验统计方法解集GCM网格逐月的降水和温度数据,并使用建立的气候变化情景作为WEPP的输入文件评估黄土高原王东沟流域2010～2039年土壤水分平衡(土壤水分、蒸发、渗漏和蒸腾)的可能变化。结果表明,3种情景预测2010～2039年王东沟流域年均降水可能增长1.8%～17.5%,年最高温度和最低温度分别可能增长0.5～0.9℃和2.0～2.3℃。作物蒸腾变化主要在4～6月份,土壤蒸发变化主要发生在7～9月份;作物蒸腾年均变化-5%～19%,土壤水分年均变化-4%～4%,土壤蒸发年均变化-7%～7%,均为A2a减少,B2a和GGal增大;A2a的土壤水分渗漏增长最大,GGal次之,B2a基本不变。这些结果表明气候变化及其导致的作物生长变化对土壤水分平衡存在重要的影响。Evaluation of soil water balance response to climate change is one of the most important aspects of assessing climate change impact on agricultural production under the background of global change. A new empirical approach was used to downscale GCM grid output, and three emissions scenarios （A2a, B2a and GGal ） of Wangdonggou watershed during 2010- 2039 were developed to simulate the potential change of soil water balance （soil moisture, evaporation, percolation and crop transpiration ） with the WEPP model. HadCM3 predicted a 1. 8% -- 7.5% increase in annual precipitation, 0.5 --0.9 ℃ rises in maximum temperature, and 2.0 --2.3 ℃ rise in minimum temperature for the station. Compared with the present climate, plant transpiration would mainly change from April to June and soil evaporation from July to September. Percent increases under climate changes, as averaged for each emissions scenario and slope, ranged -5%--19% for crop transpiration, -4%--4% for soil moisture, -7%--7% for soil evaporation, 6.5%--44.1% for wheat grain yield, 26.3%--41.7% for maize yield. Predicted soil water percolation change was the greatest under A2a, the least under GGal, and intermediate under B2a. These results suggest that change of climate and crop growth will influence soil water balance significantly.

关 键 词：解集 气候变化影响评估 土壤水分平衡 GCM WEPP 

分 类 号：S152.7[农业科学—土壤学] S165[农业科学—农业基础科学]