当代大气科学方法论及其展望述评  

The Methodology of Present Atmosphere Science and the Review for Its Prospects

作　　者：丁裕国[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2007年第4期1-4,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40675043);江苏省气象灾害重点实验室基金项目(KLME050209)资助

摘　　要：从方法论的高度上阐述大气科学中关于"确定论"和"随机论"两种主导思想的研究方法。指出,确定论不再是唯一占统治地位的方法论,不确定性的客观存在已经为愈来愈多的科学事实所证明。天气气候变化过程,既有确定性的一面,又存在着不确定性的一面。必须正确认识两者对立统一的辩证关系。文中指出,由于"新三论"的异军突起,必须重新认识自然界历来就存在的必然性现象及其动力学规律、偶然性现象及其统计规律、既必然又偶然的混沌现象及其非线性规律及其三者的相互联系。因而在大气科学研究中,确定性方法和随机性方法必须有机结合,而其新的结合点正是混沌理论及其非线性科学。The dominant ideas of the determinate methodology and the random methodology are two research methods in present atmosphere science. In this paper, author shows that the determinate methodology occupying a govern position in terms of being unique no longer. The uncertainty existed objectively to be already proven by more and more science fact. The weather and climate process have not only determinate features but also random features and the both are the dialectic unity of opposite relationship. The inevitability phenomenon and their dynamics law, the contingency phenomenon and their statistical law, the chaos phenomenon and their nonlinearity law, and the triple mutuality gets in touch with other, these must be understood renewedly that Nature always moves towards existence. As a result the dynamical method and the statistics method must be organically combined for atmosphere science study. But whose new binding site will be the chaotic theory and their nonlinearity science.

关 键 词：方法论 确定性 随机性 动力学方法 统计学方法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]